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Maalik Box Office Prediction: Rajkummar Rao's Massy Turn Awaits a Slow Opening Despite the Buzz

Rajkummar Rao’s highly awaited metamorphosis into a coarse, massy gangster with Maalik was poised to upend the box office. With the actor on a high from recent theatrical success and good word on the trailer, the hopes were unmistakably sky-high. Yet, as the film opens in theaters this Friday (July 11), the initial numbers are painting a different picture, one that speaks of an indifferent opening, disappointing footfalls, and fallen milestones.

Advance Bookings: An Alarming Beginning

Maalik, which was produced by Pulkit and also starred Manushi Chhillar, Prosenjit Chatterjee, and Saurabh Shukla, opened its advance bookings on Wednesday afternoon. However, despite Rajkummar’s growing popularity and the action-packed genre, the response has been far from encouraging. As of Thursday evening, Maalik had only managed to sell around 6,500 tickets across the top three national cinema chains, PVR, INOX, and Cinepolis.

This figure is not just below expectations; it’s alarmingly low for a commercial film trying to tap into the mass market. Typically, massy action films thrive on single-screen hype and early bookings in Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities. But for a film boasting a genre pivot for its lead actor, the lack of excitement at the ticket counters is telling.

Comparisons With Past Hits

Maalik Box Office Prediction: Rajkummar Rao's Massy Turn Awaits a Slow Opening Despite the Buzz

To put things into perspective, Rajkummar Rao’s previous release, Bhool Chuk Maaf, a quirky time-loop comedy, had a relatively strong start with a ₹7.2 crore opening. Even Jaat, a massy actioner starring Sunny Deol, clocked in ₹9 crore on Day 1 earlier this year. Compared to these films, Maalik is not just lagging; it might not even manage to earn half of those numbers.

Industry insiders are cautiously pegging Maalik’s Day 1 collection between ₹2 and ₹4 crore, with some conservative estimates leaning towards the lower end of that range. That means the film could potentially open at just 50% of Bhool Chuk Maaf’s opening, or even less. If that happens, Maalik will struggle to break into the Top 10 Bollywood Openers of 2025, a list the makers were likely hoping to crack.

What Went Wrong With the Buzz?

The Maalik trailer had indeed promised a lot. It got audiences used to Rajkummar’s dark, gritty persona, with stylish visuals, relentless action, and a complex storyline. It initially created some good word-of-mouth on social media. But beyond that initial impression, the movie could not keep its marketing momentum going.

Post-trailer, promotional content for the film, be it songs, posters, interviews, or digital campaigns, failed to create the kind of chatter a big-ticket action release requires. Rajkummar’s fanbase, which largely connects with his grounded, relatable roles, may not have fully bought into his new avatar just yet. And with not many mass-level promotions in small towns or regional markets, Maalik lost the opportunity to tap into a possible crowd-attracting audience.

The Stakes Are High

Maalik Box Office Prediction: Rajkummar Rao's Massy Turn Awaits a Slow Opening Despite the Buzz

With the genre, budget, and size of Maalik, there is much more at stake than a cult indie release. Trade experts suggest that for the film to even break even, it will need to earn around ₹60-70 crore at the domestic box office. Without a solid opening weekend to build upon, this target is looking increasingly out of reach.

Naturally, box office fortunes can change. Word-of-mouth is a major player, particularly for mid-budget action thrillers. If audiences respond to the story, performances, or execution, the movie can bounce back from a slow start. But in a crowded market filled with new releases and streaming competition, time is never an ally.

Rajkummar Rao: Still in Top Form

Maalik Box Office Prediction: Rajkummar Rao's Massy Turn Awaits a Slow Opening Despite the Buzz

Despite the lukewarm opening predictions for Maalik, Rajkummar Rao’s current form at the box office cannot be ignored. He’s coming off three back-to-back successful releases: Stree 2, Vicky Vidya Ka Woh Wala Video, and Bhool Chuk Maaf. Every one of these movies not only demonstrated his versatility but also attracted good figures as well, reasserting his box office viability.

Maalik is a risk, a genre experiment with a view to broadening Rajkummar’s reach. Although the beginning isn’t great, the actor’s performance and the narrative of the movie could nonetheless set things aright. It’s not the first time a film has defied predictions and surged ahead after an average start.

Final Word

Maalik was touted as Rajkummar Rao’s big ‘mass turn,’ a gritty gangster flick that would position him in a new light. Unfortunately, preliminary indications are that the movie may not roar at the box office as expected. With pre-bookings at a mere 6,500 tickets, lackluster buzz, and reserved Day 1 projections, Maalik is set to stumble into the start. Whether it can gain momentum on the weekend and earn fan affection remains to be seen.

Sometimes the box office is a battleground, and Maalik may need a miracle in order to emerge from this war victorious.